I first reviewed the book about 10 years ago and felt in the current crisis that it was one that I would like to revisit, reflect on once again.
This book underscores the fact that it is better to deal with reality and be prepared as best we can for big changes, ones traditional analysis tells us are highly improbable. Taleb shows that the highly improbable is anything but and he deconstructs -- actually he rips apart, very logically, the predictive probabilities associated with the ubiquitous bell curve in a manner a non-statistician can understand.
He provides us with a language to use against the analysts, who are using highly-sophisticated bell curve models in an effort to make business decisions. This predictive activity can now be revealed for what it is. It is nothing more than corporate tarot card reading.
For me, finding out that the steering wheel I had been holding onto to steer organisations was not connected to anything was a revelation and forced me to see the world as it really is, not as the analysts would have us believe.
I highly recommend this thought-provoking book.